The Premier League title race: How many chances does Arsenal have left after the defeat at Etihad?

The defeat at Etihad is not just a matter of points but also a heavy psychological blow to Arsenal in the title race with Man City. They had led the Premier League for most of the season, but as in many previous seasons, they collapsed at the decisive moment.

By defeating Arsenal in a match that could decide this season's Premier League title, Man City is riding the highest wave of excitement. If Pep Guardiola's team beats Burnley in the postponed match, they will rise to the top of the table, based on total goals scored or goal difference, depending on the specific score.

That shift could come with an extremely narrow margin, but the psychological impact on Arsenal will be immense, especially since they had led for most of the season.

Arsenal has finished runner-up in the last three seasons, and dropping to second place with only five matches left will be a major test of mental fortitude. Mikel Arteta's team deserves credit for starting this match with clear determination, especially their excellent pressing ability in the first half. However, the feeling that the title is slipping away once again will be hard to shake.

Just seconds after the final whistle, Man City fans raised a banner with the words "Panic On The Streets Of London," referencing the famous 1986 song by The Smiths. For Man City, this is a significant step on their journey to the summit. They now have the chance to lead the table for the first time since the opening round of the season.

Certainly, the road ahead still has many twists, and Arsenal can find hope from how they competed in this match. However, the Gunners' advantage is now at risk of completely vanishing.

Arsenal falters once again in April, precisely when Pep Guardiola's Man City accelerates strongly. The Gunners have lost four of their last six matches across all competitions, and April continues to be a stumbling block for Arteta's team.

Statistically, April is Arsenal's worst-performing month under Arteta since he took over the team in December 2019, with a win rate of only 41% and an average of 1.48 points per match. Conversely, Man City typically surges powerfully during this period, and April is also Guardiola's most successful month since he began leading the team in the 2016-17 season.

To win the Premier League, a team must defeat its direct rivals at the decisive moment. Yet, Arsenal once again failed to do so at Etihad. Arteta has never led his team to a win away at Man City, and Arsenal has also not managed to beat Liverpool at Anfield under this manager.

Arsenal's streak of no wins at Man City's ground has stretched since 2015, while their last victory at Anfield was back in 2012. Those numbers partly explain why Arsenal still hasn't grasped the Premier League title.

In the past, Arsenal's title-winning team under Arsene Wenger secured two massive victories at Manchester United before clinching the crown. Further back, George Graham's squad famously won 2-0 at Anfield in the final round of the 1988-89 season to seize the championship. Until Arteta's team achieves similar results against direct rivals, they may continue to play the role of runner-up.

After the showdown at Etihad, the statistics of Arsenal and Man City remain very balanced against each other. Arsenal (70 points) leads Man City (67 points) by 3 points but has played one more match. Arsenal's goal difference is (+37) compared to Man City's (+36). Arsenal has scored 63 goals while Man City has scored 65. Man City holds the advantage in head-to-head record (1 win, 1 draw).

If Arsenal and Man City finish with equal points after completing all matches, the criteria to determine the champion will be considered in order: goal difference, total goals scored, head-to-head record. Simply considering these criteria, Man City already holds an advantage over the Gunners. But beyond the statistical edge, Man City's major advantage right now is psychological momentum, while Arsenal faces the opposite.

Looking at the remaining fixtures for both teams, Arsenal and Man City both still face Burnley and Crystal Palace. Arsenal's other three opponents include Newcastle, Fulham, and West Ham, with West Ham fighting relegation, so this away match could pose risks for Arsenal.

For Man City, besides Palace and Burnley, they also face Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa, with Aston Villa considered the toughest opponent as they are competing for a Champions League spot and previously defeated Man City (1-0) in the first leg this season. But Man City plays Villa at home, so they still hold a significant advantage. Everton, Brentford, and Bournemouth are not relegation-threatened but are also outside the European cup qualification group. They still have motivation to fight for European cup spots but are naturally rated lower than Man City in the upcoming direct clashes.

Another noteworthy point is that while Man City now focuses solely on the Premier League title race, Arsenal at least still has two Champions League semifinal matches against Atletico Madrid. Arsenal's squad depth is limited, and Mikel Arteta is missing some key players due to injuries.

All these factors place Arsenal in a highly disadvantageous position in the title race with Man City. They still have a chance to claim the Premier League crown, but that opportunity comes with the condition that they cannot drop any more points, while their opponent must do the opposite.

Can those two conditions occur simultaneously in the context where Man City holds advantages in auxiliary statistics, momentum, and composure, plays only one front, while Arsenal is unsettled, has a depleted squad, and still has at least two very difficult matches in the Champions League?

Remaining fixtures for Arsenal and Man City (H: Home, A: Away)

Arsenal

Newcastle (H) – Rank 14

Fulham (H) – Rank 13

West Ham (A) – Rank 17

Burnley (H) – Rank 19

Crystal Palace (A) – Rank 13

Man City

Burnley (A) – Rank 19

Everton (A) – Rank 10

Brentford (H) – Rank 7

Bournemouth (A) – Rank 8

Aston Villa (H) – Rank 4

Crystal Palace (H) – Rank 13