The Serie A Top 4 Race: Ultimately, Everything Returns to Its Place!

There was a time when people thought Juventus had no chance of qualifying for next season's Champions League, and Milan's position in the Top 4 was seriously threatened by a slump in form, but it seems the difficulties have passed for these two giants of Italian football.

Round 33 of Serie A witnessed a major turning point in the race for Champions League spots. Milan and Juventus secured crucial victories, while Como and Roma both stumbled. The gap between the Top 4 and the chasing pack increased from 2 to 5 points in just one round.

A Clear Path for Juventus

Exactly one month ago, after being held to a 1-1 draw by Sassuolo in a match where Manuel Locatelli missed a penalty in the 87th minute, many believed Juventus had lost hope. That same day, Como (then 4th in Serie A) crushed Pisa 5-0 to extend their lead over Juve to 3 points (effectively 4, due to Como's superior head-to-head record). Como's formidable form starkly contrasted with Juventus's lack of confidence. But the situation reversed rapidly after just three matches. Juve won all three, while Como managed only 1 point out of a possible 9. From being 3 points behind and in 5th place, Juve now occupies 4th place, leading Como by 5 points. Roma, who were tied with Juve a month ago, are now also 5 points behind.

The race for the Champions League ticket is naturally not settled yet, as the season still has 5 rounds remaining. The sudden drop of Como, one of the best-performing teams since early 2026, shows anything can happen. However, Juventus's manner of victory in their last three matches confirms they possess the strength and resilience to firmly hold at least their current 4th position. The enormous advantage created by Como and Roma's stumble last weekend further boosts Juventus's confidence and morale ahead of the challenge against Milan this weekend. The 5-point gap ensures Juve retains control even if they lose at San Siro.

Given that both Como and Roma (both on 58 points) can only reach a maximum of 73 points by season's end, Juventus (63 points) need to secure 11 out of 15 points in the remaining 5 rounds to compete with Como (due to inferior head-to-head) and 10 points to definitively stay above Roma. This means they can still afford to drop at least 4 points, equivalent to losing one or drawing two matches. But Roma and Como are unlikely to win all their matches; in fact, they risk continuing their poor form due to morale issues. Therefore, Juventus's position is relatively secure.

A New Target for the Final Sprint

Indeed, when soaring, there are no limits to ambition. A month ago, Juventus trailed Milan's 2nd place by 9 points, but now, after a 2-0 win over Bologna in round 33, that gap is only 3 points. From fearing they couldn't make the Top 4, coach Luciano Spalletti and his squad can now realistically aim for the runner-up spot.

And they have a significant opportunity to achieve this new goal when they face Milan itself in round 34 this Sunday night, April 26. The first leg between the two teams ended 0-0 at Allianz Stadium, so if Juve defeats Milan in this return match, they will not only equal the points but also definitively rank above Milan due to a superior head-to-head record. This is a highly plausible scenario given Milan's home performance this season is worse than their away record. Four of Milan's six defeats this season were at San Siro. In their last five home matches, Milan won only two, lost two, securing just 7 out of 15 possible points, ranking 12th among 20 teams. Conversely, Juventus's form in their last five away matches is 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, earning 10 points, second only to Bologna (12).

But the race for Top 2 also includes Napoli, who also have 66 points like Milan after surprisingly losing 0-2 at home to Lazio, a team with no remaining objectives. Although trailing in points, Juve holds a head-to-head advantage over Napoli (3-0, 1-2), and if tied on points at season's end, they would rank above Antonio Conte's former team. Juventus's hope lies in Napoli showing signs of lost motivation, as evidenced in their loss to Lazio.

Nevertheless, Juventus's most crucial task remains not losing the Champions League ticket. Any position higher than the current 4th place would be a reward for this roller-coaster season.